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Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Saturday, October 29, 2016

25 Years of Investing

In the last unit of the first senior steam class, Economics, we talked about money in the market. We focused on how money moves through the government and through the market and how quickly the market can change. This lead us into our action project where we were given a sum of money that we had to spend over a 25 year period by investing it in different companies. This project was incredibly challenging but it was worth it. I learned a lot of things about investing and the goals I want to set for myself. 
__________________________________________________________________

The scenario goes like this: 18 years ago, my guardian angel set up a college savings plan for me with an initial investment of $8,500. My angel contributed $50 each month to the college savings plan ($600 yearly). After 18 years at an average annual interest rate of 7%, compounded annually, the plan is now worth a hefty lump sum. Yesterday, I cashed out your plan and deposited the money in a brokerage account to invest on my own.

After those 18 years in the bank, that $8,500 is now $49,128.87. In order to get the most out of this money, I am investing in three different companies. My investment philosophy is that I want to make money, but I don't want to invest in things that I dont potentially agree with. I will give some leeway for something that I know would make me a lot of money but it goes against my morals a little bit. I will draw the line when it comes to a company that goes completely opposite from my morals. I have a pretty high risk tolerance. After taking a quiz online with the Rutgers New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station, I scored a 37 which means I have a high risk tolerance. I like to take risks and that shows in my investments.

While doing this I had to think a lot about my values and which type of companies follow them. I value environmentally friendly, animal friendly, and profit driven companies. I want companies that look out for animals and the environment but I also want to make money. I would love a company that did all three but if a company that could make me a lot of money was animal friendly but not incredibly environmentally friendly, I would sacrifice that so that I would be able to reach my SMART goals in the time I want to achieve them.

I set some SMART goals for myself to achieve within 25 years. I chose 3 goals I would like to achieve; one after 1 year, one after 5 years, and one after 25 years. My goals are as follows:

1-year goal: Have enough money to take a summer off to travel- $7,000 

5-year goal: rent a nice apartment in california- $8,000 

25-year goal: own a lake house in Wisconsin/ Michigan -$34,000 


When it comes to investing, I chose three companies: Apple, Nike, and Disney. I chose to dive deeper into two of my three companies: Apple and Disney.

Disney is a huge company that has been around for years. They focus on many different elements such as clothing, toys, and most importantly: movies. They have created hundreds of movies over the time of their existence and have also created thousands of shorts. Diversification is very big at Disney. After getting a lot of heat about all of their movies being about white people, they switched it up and started making their movies about all different races, most recently they are releasing a new Disney Princess movie called Moana. They also recently bought the star wars franchise and are releasing 6 new movies under that, 1 of which has already come out and gotten rave reviews. Their economic moat is very large because of the companies that they work with. Their P.E. ratio is 23.32 (industry) and their dividend yield is 1.53%. This companys makes a lot of family friendly movies and they are a very family oriented company, with all of their new movies coming out, they are a very smart investment. Disney is definitely a long term investment.

Apple is a gigantic corporation that has been around since 1976. They specialize in electronics: phones, computers, tv systems, headphones, etc. They have released lots of different types of phones over the years and just recently released the iphone 7 and the iphone 7+. These have caused the market to change drastically. Every Time they release a new product their are lines of people ready to get their products. Apple’s economic moat is very strong since lots of people won't try to do the exact same thing as apple because it wouldn't be beneficially if it's not the real thing. Apple's risk factor is most likely very high since they are always changing new things on the iPhones that people may or may not like. Their P.E. ratio is 26.08. This would also be a very smart investment for me to make.

The time horizon comes into play when investing no matter what. I am spreading out my stock investments based on how they have been doing for the past year. If one of my stocks is dropping, I will only invest in that one for 1 year, and if a company is doing well, I will invest in it during one of my longer periods.

I created 3 investment portfolios for each goal I set for myself.


For my 1 year goal, I put in $7,000:


60 shares of NIK @ $51.80 ($3,108 total) (35% of portfolio)


30 shares of APPL @ 114.97 (3,449.10 total) (65% of portfolio)

meta-chart.jpeg
1 year. MF, 2016


The grouping of NIK and APPL had an expected ROI of 21.08%. In the graph above I have sectioned off a pie chart to show how my portfolio was divided.


For my 5 year goal, I put in $8,000:


50 shares of NIK @ 51.80 (2,590 total) (30% of portfolio)


50 shares of DIS @ $93.83 ( 4,691.5 total) (70% of portfolio 



meta-chart-2.jpeg
5 year. MF, 2016

The grouping of NIK and DIS had an expected ROI of 106.8%. In the graph above I have sectioned off a pie chart to show how my portfolio was divided.

For my 25 year goal, I put in $34,000:


40 shares of DIS @ 93.83 (3,753.2 total) (50% of portfolio) 


70 shares of APPL @ 114.97 (8,622.75 total) (50% of portfolio)


meta-chart-4.jpeg
25 year. MF, 2016

The grouping of DIS and APPL had an expected ROI of 6903.03%. In the graph above I have sectioned off a pie chart to show how my portfolio was divided.

The three investments that I made are in all different stock sectors. Nike is ruled under consumer goods, Disney is entertainment, and Apple is electronics. I wanted to make sure that the companies I was investing in were not all selling the same type of thing. I wanted to have a lot of diversity so my investments fall into different categories. Throughout this process I made a few assumptions for the sake of the project:

-The ROI will stay the same

-The stock market won’t crash during the 25 years I am investing

-The real estate market won’t crash.

After a lot of investing, all of my goals will become a reality. I invested in the right companies and based on the math I did, all of my goals should be reached by the time allowed for each one.


_________________________________________________________

References:


"Apple Inc's ROI per Quarter." Apple Inc (AAPL) Return on Investment ROI Quarterly, Average High and Low, Overall Ranking from Mar 26 2016 to Mar 28 2015. CSI Market Company, 2016. Web. 29 Oct. 2016.


"AAPL Profile | Apple Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance." AAPL Profile | Apple Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance. Yahoo, n.d. Web. 29 Oct. 2016.


"BRING INSPIRATION ANDINNOVATION TO EVERYATHLETE* IN THE WORLD." About Nike. Nike, n.d. Web. 29 Oct. 2016.


"DIS Profile | Walt Disney Company (The) Commo Stock - Yahoo Finance." DIS Profile | Walt Disney Company (The) Commo Stock - Yahoo Finance. Yahoo, n.d. Web. 29 Oct. 2016.


"NKE Profile | Nike, Inc. Common Stock Stock - Yahoo Finance." NKE Profile | Nike, Inc. Common Stock Stock - Yahoo Finance. Yahoo, n.d. Web. 29 Oct. 2016.


"Nike, Inc. (NKE) Ownership Summary." NASDAQ.com. Nasdaq, n.d. Web. 29 Oct. 2016.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Lawyer vs. Marine Biologist

For the first Action Project of the STEAM course, Economics, we were tasked to look at our futures. We had to think about what we want to do with our lives post high school. That included looking at the college route vs the no college route, thinking about how much it would cost to go to college to obtain the degree that we need, figuring out how much money we would make in our chosen profession over 40+ years, etc. Something we looked at a lot in this unit was opportunity cost and money. This means how long things take and comparing that to other things you could be doing. This goes into the project quite a bit because we had to choose if we wanted to spend time and money in college or just heading straight into our career. Something I struggled with was choosing a career. I have so many ideas about what I want to do with my life after high school. I finally decided to choose two different careers and see which one would be most beneficial.
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The question “What do you want to be when you grow up?” sits in the mind of most teenagers. Next year I will either attend Harvard Law School or The University of California Santa Barbara to study how to become either a lawyer or a marine biologist. Marine Biologists work with the things happening in the water. That includes oceans, rivers, lakes, etc. They work to keep the water clean and make sure all the living things are healthy. Lawyers are the ones that defend/prosecute people in court. They work in the courts working on cases of all topics and making sure everything is just and fair for people.

I chose these two occupations because I have always been interested in the ocean as well as law. My uncle is a lawyer so I have learned a lot of things from him about what it’s like to work in this profession. I have always loved to swim and learn more about the different animals in the water. I am super interested in both of these careers. In order to become a marine biologist I would need 4-10 years in college ( 4 years for a bachelor's degree, an (optional) master’s degree or PhD). In order to become a lawyer I would need 7-8 years in college (4 years for a bachelor's degree;following that is law school for 3-4 years).

College is extremely expensive. The cost of Harvard Law in 2015-2016 was $57,200. The cost of Harvard Law in 2016-2017 was $59,550. The tuition percent increase is 4%. After going to school for four years, the cost would be $263691.43. The cost of University of California Santa Barbara in 2015-2016 was 24,708. The cost of University of California Santa Barbara in 2016-2017 was $26,682. The tuition percent increase is 8% After going to this school for 4 years the total amount of money I would be paying would be $192,254.87



Reference Data
Beginning Balance$263,691.43
APR5
Annual Salary$74,880.00
Annual Payment$22,464.00
(2016)


Year
Beginning Balance
Payment
Interest Rate
Interest Paid
Principal Paid
Ending Balance
1
$263,691.43
$22,464.00
5.00%
$13,184.57
$9,279.43
$254,412.00
2
$254,412.00
$22,464.00
5.00%
$12,720.60
$9,743.40
$244,668.60
3
$244,668.60
$22,464.00
5.00%
$12,233.43
$10,230.57
$234,438.03
4
$234,438.03
$22,464.00
5.00%
$11,721.90
$10,742.10
$223,695.93
5
$223,695.93
$22,464.00
5.00%
$11,184.80
$11,279.20
$212,416.73
6
$212,416.73
$22,464.00
5.00%
$10,620.84
$11,843.16
$200,573.56
7
$200,573.56
$22,464.00
5.00%
$10,028.68
$12,435.32
$188,138.24
8
$188,138.24
$22,464.00
5.00%
$9,406.91
$13,057.09
$175,081.15
9
$175,081.15
$22,464.00
5.00%
$8,754.06
$13,709.94
$161,371.21
10
$161,371.21
$22,464.00
5.00%
$8,068.56
$14,395.44
$146,975.77
11
$146,975.77
$22,464.00
5.00%
$7,348.79
$15,115.21
$131,860.56
12
$131,860.56
$22,464.00
5.00%
$6,593.03
$15,870.97
$115,989.59
13
$115,989.59
$22,464.00
5.00%
$5,799.48
$16,664.52
$99,325.07
14
$99,325.07
$22,464.00
5.00%
$4,966.25
$17,497.75
$81,827.32
15
$81,827.32
$22,464.00
5.00%
$4,091.37
$18,372.63
$63,454.68
16
$63,454.68
$22,464.00
5.00%
$3,172.73
$19,291.27
$44,163.42
17
$44,163.42
$22,464.00
5.00%
$2,208.17
$20,255.83
$23,907.59
18
$23,907.59
$22,464.00
5.00%
$1,195.38
$21,268.62
$2,638.97
19
$2,638.97
$2,770.92
5.00%
$131.95
$2,638.97
$0.00
20
$0.00
$0.00
5.00%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
21
$0.00
$0.00
5.00%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00



True Cost of College
$143,431.49

$407,122.92
Law (2016)


Reference Data
Beginning Balance$129,817.30
APR5
Annual Salary$39,700.00
Annual Payment$11,910.00
(2016)


YearBeginning BalancePaymentInterest RateInterest PaidPrincipal PaidEnding Balance
1$129,817.30$11,910.005.00%$6,490.87$5,419.13$124,398.17
2$124,398.17$11,910.005.00%$6,219.91$5,690.09$118,708.07
3$118,708.07$11,910.005.00%$5,935.40$5,974.60$112,733.48
4$112,733.48$11,910.005.00%$5,636.67$6,273.33$106,460.15
5$106,460.15$11,910.005.00%$5,323.01$6,586.99$99,873.16
6$99,873.16$11,910.005.00%$4,993.66$6,916.34$92,956.82
7$92,956.82$11,910.005.00%$4,647.84$7,262.16$85,694.66
8$85,694.66$11,910.005.00%$4,284.73$7,625.27$78,069.39
9$78,069.39$11,910.005.00%$3,903.47$8,006.53$70,062.86
10$70,062.86$11,910.005.00%$3,503.14$8,406.86$61,656.00
11$61,656.00$11,910.005.00%$3,082.80$8,827.20$52,828.80
12$52,828.80$11,910.005.00%$2,641.44$9,268.56$43,560.24
13$43,560.24$11,910.005.00%$2,178.01$9,731.99$33,828.25
14$33,828.25$11,910.005.00%$1,691.41$10,218.59$23,609.67
15$23,609.67$11,910.005.00%$1,180.48$10,729.52$12,880.15
16$12,880.15$11,910.005.00%$644.01$11,265.99$1,614.16
17$1,614.16$1,694.875.00%$80.71$1,614.16$0.00
18$0.00$0.005.00%$0.00$0.00$0.00
19$0.00$0.005.00%$0.00$0.00$0.00
20$0.00$0.005.00%$0.00$0.00$0.00
21$0.00$0.005.00%$0.00$0.00$0.00
True Cost of College$62,437.57$192,254.87
M.Biology (2016)


For a career in marine biology, it would take me 17 years to pay off all of my student loans. The true cost of my college education would be $192,254.87. I would have paid $62,437.57 in interest. For a career in law, it would take me 19 years to pay off all my student loans. The true cost of my college education would be $264,926.04. I would have paid $143,431.49 in interest (see the charts above).


For a career in marine biology, the salary ranges. The minimum salary is $39,700 the max is $124,680 and the median is $70,800. For a career as a lawyer the minimum salary is $74,880 the max is $187,199 and the median is $130,880. By the time I retire, if I am to go into marine biology, I would make $3,874,552. If I go into law, I would make $6,512,444. For marine biology, I would be paying my student loans back one year less than if I went into law but I would be paying more interest. Right now there are 1,300,705 lawyers in the U.S. and only 18,523 marine biologists. The outlook rate is going up for both with lawyers leading with a 10% increase rate and marine biology having a 7% increase.

Reference Data
Entry-level Salary$74,880
Mid-level Salary$130,880
Senior-level Salary$187,199
Annual Raise (%)3.00%
(2016)


Career Level
# of Working Year
Year
Annual Salary
Entry
1
2021
$39,760
Entry
2
2022
$39,772
Entry
3
2023
$39,783
Entry
4
2024
$39,795=
Entry
5
2025
$39,807
Mid
6
2026
$71,013
Mid
7
2027
$71,034
Mid
8
2028
$71,055
Mid
9
2029
$71,077
Mid
10
2030
$71,098
Mid
11
2031
$71,119
Mid
12
2032
$71,141
Mid
13
2033
$71,162
Mid
14
2034
$71,183
Mid
15
2035
$71,205
Mid
16
2036
$71,226
Mid
17
2037
$71,247
Mid
18
2038
$71,269
Mid
19
2039
$71,290
Mid
20
2040
$71,312
Mid
21
2041
$71,333
Mid
22
2042
$71,354
Mid
23
2043
$71,376
Mid
24
2044
$71,397
Mid
25
2045
$71,419
Mid
26
2046
$71,440
Mid
27
2047
$71,461
Mid
28
2048
$71,483
Mid
29
2049
$71,504
Mid
30
2050
$71,526
Senior
31
2051
$125,996
Senior
32
2052
$126,034
Senior
33
2053
$126,071
Senior
34
2054
$126,109
Senior
35
2055
$126,147
Senior
36
2056
$126,185
Senior
37
2057
$126,223
Senior
38
2058
$126,261
Senior
39
2059
$126,299
Senior
40
2060
$126,336
Senior
41
2061
$126,374
Senior
42
2062
$126,412
Senior
43
2063
$126,450
Senior
44
2064
$126,488
Senior
45
2065
$126,526





Total Lifetime earnings

$3,874,552
M. Biology (2016)

Reference Data
Entry-level Salary$39,700
Mid-level Salary$70,800
Senior-level Salary$124,680
Annual Raise (%)3.00%
(2016) 


Career Level
# of Working Year
Year
Annual Salary
Entry
1
2021
$74,992
Entry
2
2022
$75,015
Entry
3
2023
$75,037
Entry
4
2024
$75,060
Entry
5
2025
$75,082
Mid
6
2026
$131,273
Mid
7
2027
$131,313
Mid
8
2028
$131,352
Mid
9
2029
$131,391
Mid
10
2030
$131,431
Mid
11
2031
$131,470
Mid
12
2032
$131,510
Mid
13
2033
$131,549
Mid
14
2034
$131,589
Mid
15
2035
$131,628
Mid
16
2036
$131,668
Mid
17
2037
$131,707
Mid
18
2038
$131,747
Mid
19
2039
$131,786
Mid
20
2040
$131,826
Mid
21
2041
$131,865
Mid
22
2042
$131,905
Mid
23
2043
$131,944
Mid
24
2044
$131,984
Mid
25
2045
$132,023
Mid
26
2046
$132,063
Mid
27
2047
$132,103
Mid
28
2048
$132,142
Mid
29
2049
$132,182
Mid
30
2050
$132,222
Senior
31
2051
$189,175
Senior
32
2052
$189,231
Senior
33
2053
$189,288
Senior
34
2054
$189,345
Senior
35
2055
$189,402
Senior
36
2056
$189,459
Senior
37
2057
$189,515
Senior
38
2058
$189,572
Senior
39
2059
$189,629
Senior
40
2060
$189,686
Senior
41
2061
$189,743
Senior
42
2062
$189,800
Senior
43
2063
$189,857
Senior
44
2064
$189,914
Senior
45
2065
$189,971





Total Lifetime earnings

$6,512,444
Law (2016)

FullSizeRender 2.jpg
Supply and Demand MB (2016)



FullSizeRender 3.jpg
Supply and Demand Law (2016)
I would be in the law industry and the science industry. The future outlook for lawyers is about 10% (projected to grow 6% by 2024). The future outlook for marine biologists is 7% (projected to grow 1.3% each year from 2010-2020). Currently, there is a 0.7% population change in the U.S. Lawyers continue to be needed so there isn’t a drop in that field. The demand for marine biologists has been increasing lately especially for female marine biologists since there are not that many female scientists out there currently. There is an option for both careers for advanced degrees. For law, once you obtain a bachelor’s degree at the 4-year college, you move on to law school and that can range from 3-4 extra years. For marine biology, after the bachelor’s, you can get a PhD or a master’s degree.


Some benefits from these two jobs are:
-Great job
-Something I am super passionate about
-Lots of money
-Great job outlook
-Prestigious colleges


I have decided that it would be most beneficial for me to become a lawyer. Some assumptions I made were that I would get into the school of my choice, get into the law program since it is very competitive, and that I would be able to get a job right out of college.  When looking at lawyer, I figured that the mastery I would gain throughout my many years of schooling would make getting the job so much more satisfying because it opens a lot of doors to work with different people on different cases that I am passionate and care a lot about. I realized that a dollar today is worth more tomorrow because the interest rates for paying back students loans changed the price so quickly in just a matter of days. Interest is something that came into play a lot with this project. Based on my graphs, I really had to think about which choice I would be willing to pay for.  Another thing that I realized was that  Throughout this job search, I realized I really a passionate about a lot of things and the ocean is just one of them and by being a lawyer, I would be able to work on cases for all of the things I am interested in. Interest rates change the price you have to pay back very drastically. College is also extremely expensive but student loans help out with that even though they are a pain to pay back.



__________________________________________________________________________________

Sources:
American Bar Association. "Briefs: Lawyer Demographics, Detroit ADR." Alternatives to the High Cost of Litigation Alt High Cost Litig 4.11 (1986): 6-7. American Bar Association, 2015. Web. 27 Sept. 2016.


Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Summary." U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 17 Dec. 2015. Web. 27 Sept. 2016.

"Careers in Marine Biology." - SWFSC. Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 6 Nov. 2015. Web. 27 Sept. 2016.

"Cost of Attendance." - UCSB Office of Financial Aid and Scholarships. University of California, 2015. Web. 27 Sept. 2016.
@exciteonlineedu. "How to Become A Lawyer, Becoming A Lawyer." Excite Education. Mindspark, 2001. Web. 27 Sept. 2016.

"How to Become a Marine Biologist." How to Become a Marine Biologist. N.p., 2016. Web. 27 Sept. 2016.

Mahuron, Sara. "Is It Hard to Find a Job as a Marine Biologist?" Our Everyday Life. StudioD, 2016. Web. 27 Sept. 2016.